Russia is not protected from shocks that threaten the economy of the whole world if the US rating decreases or a default for obligations will occur, says Ivan Chakarov, the main economist of Renaissance Capital.
Negative development of events will entail a decrease in Russian GDP growth to 2.9-3% when slowing the US economy by 1 p. p., Calculated experts “Renaissance Capital”. While the Russian GDP has grown in the first quarter by 4.1% in annual calculus, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, this indicator will reach 4.2%.
The problems of the United States will lead to a deterioration in the situation around the world and, in particular, the lending market will very much suffer, where credit cards are the development catalyst, but Russia is subject to negative influence more than other countries. “An increase in GDP in the first quarter gave companies confidence: hoping for qualitative changes in market conditions, they increased stocks, despite the stagnation of domestic and external demand,” he notes. The complication of the situation in the United States will negatively affect the expectations of the real sector. This will entail the return of the stagnation of the Russian economy, he emphasizes. Russia is not protected from external shocks due to the structural weakness of the economy.
The slowdown in the growth of the Russian economy is possible if the US difficulties become the cause of the fall of world demand for oil, as a result of which prices will decrease for other raw materials, Alexander Kholodov from HSBC believes. The slowdown in the US economy will entail a reduction in oil demand by 2% by 1%, Tskevayeva calculated: “In this case, the price of oil will be significantly lower”. The speed of reducing the indicators of the Russian economy is depending on the state of all developing markets, she remarks: if the markets of China and India will grow at a high rate, there will be no such serious consequences.
The growth rate of the US economy in the II quarter increased from 1.9 to 2.3%, but consumption has increased by less than 1 p. p. If the problem of public debt is not resolved, the US economy recession will resume, Ben Bernanke, chairman of the US Fed.
US difficulties will increase the rates of borrowing the Russian government. With an increase in the yield of ten -year US bonds from 3.2 to 4%, the profitability of the OFZ will increase from 7.13 to 7.54, the Renaissance Capital experts suggest. The profitability of the OFZ will have a significant impact of the behavior of the Central Bank: from whether the Central Bank will hold the ruble or be devaluated. However, the US default will positively affect the world economy in the medium term, he believes: a decrease in the dollar will positively affect the foreign trade of the United States and the world trade balance.